Incumbents after Natural Disasters: Does Media Coverage Jeopardize Reelection?
Open Access
Author:
Johnson, Gabriel
Area of Honors:
Political Science
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Ray Block, Thesis Supervisor Gretchen G Casper, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
elections natural disasters crisis United States local elections local politicians
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the effect of media coverage on an incumbent’s election performance following the occurrence of a natural disaster. It hypothesizes that broader media coverage, especially as it focuses on the incumbent or portrays the incumbent in a negative light, will correlate with reduced support from voters. To study this relationship, three comparative case studies are used: New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin in 2006, Houston mayor Sylvester Turner in 2019, and Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic in 1979. Each of these incumbents presided over a natural disaster and was considered for reelection within a year of the initial crisis. The effects of the race of the incumbent and the extent to which their constituencies are advantaged or privileged is also considered, especially to the extent these factors influence media coverage. Analyzing the three case studies leads to evidence that there may be a correlation between media coverage and reduced performance, but that it depends more strongly on the tone of the media coverage than its totality. Race and privilege do not appear to correlate strongly with either improved or diminished incumbent performance.
