Warlords on the Path of Destruction: Understanding Power Transition Theory in Twentieth Century Northern China
Open Access
Author:
Kalikow, Evan Joseph
Area of Honors:
International Politics
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Douglas William Lemke, Thesis Supervisor Dr. Gretchen G Casper, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
power transition theory international relations interstate intrastate war conflict china warlord warlord era
Abstract:
Power Transition Theory has been observed and verified in interstate conflicts; however, little research has been done to test its validity in intrastate conflict. In this thesis, I attempt to see if the hypotheses of Power Transition Theory (that (a) increased parity within a dyad leads to a higher onset of conflict, and (b) increased dissatisfaction with the status quo within a dyad leads to a higher onset of conflict) can be applied to the Warlord Era of China in the early 1900s, a region and time rife with intrastate conflict. To accomplish this, I embark on a quantitative analysis of seven northern Chinese warlords between the years of 1916 and 1930, taking into account not only their parity and status quo dissatisfaction, but also their geographic proximity and alliances. I ultimately find little support for the hypothesis regarding increased parity, but strong support for the status quo dissatisfaction hypothesis. My final section goes into further detail about Feng Yuxiang, one of the previously examined warlords who engaged in conflict with Wu Peifu twice despite having a quarter of his military resources, to try to understand why he would engage in conflict given such a disparity.