A Cross-sectional Analysis of the Hollywood Stock Exchange's Forecasting Accuracy and Risk vs. Return Relationships

Open Access
Olsho, Benjamin A
Area of Honors:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis Supervisors:
  • Timothy T Simin, Thesis Supervisor
  • James Alan Miles, Honors Advisor
  • Hollywood Stock Exchange
  • HSX
  • Prediction Markets
  • Virtual Markets
  • Forecasting
  • Risk vs. Return
  • Box Office
  • Movies
This paper examines 98 MovieStocks traded on the online entertainment prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). The analysis primarily sheds light on the market’s long-term predictive accuracy and risk vs. return relationships. In both categories, variables including a movie’s genre, time to release, and total box office revenue are considered. Data includes popular movies released from July 2011 to January 2013 from the 10 largest domestic film studios. The results will be of interest to Hollywood executives and movie exhibitors for decisions involving marketing and revenue forecasting. HSX participants will also benefit from analysis of the risk-adjusted returns of various MovieStocks.