The Producer's Dilemma: Strategizing for Film Producers Using Decision Tree Analysis

Open Access
Author:
Arakelian, Niki Nubar
Area of Honors:
Finance
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
  • James Alan Miles, Thesis Supervisor
  • James Alan Miles, Honors Advisor
  • Christoph Hinkelmann, Thesis Supervisor
Keywords:
  • Finance
  • Film
  • Film Finance
  • Producer's Dilemma
  • Film Producer
  • Box Office Performance
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Film Industry
Abstract:
Industry professionals and academics have long searched for a model to predict the profit of movies. Models for accomplishing this objective range from statistical analyses of fundamental variables to film success (such as genre, budget, and star power) to non-traditional forecasting methods of the digital age (such as social media and neural network predictors). The following thesis will use fundamental variables to a film’s success, including genre, budget, and release date, and decision tree analysis to predict the real profit of any film before its released. A film producer can use this model to value any decision he makes throughout the entire production of a film. This model can also generate an optimal strategy for a producer even when things do not go according to plan, which happens often in the chaotic film industry.