Penn State Red Cell Analytics Lab Grand Challenge: A Study on Analytic Bias
Open Access
- Author:
- Sirera, Melissa Marie
- Area of Honors:
- Security and Risk Analysis
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Jacob Lehner Graham, Thesis Supervisor
Andrea H Tapia, Thesis Honors Advisor - Keywords:
- judgment bias
structured analytic techniques
analytic bias
analytic decision game
Link Analysis
ACH
IEW
bias reduction - Abstract:
- This thesis examines the totality of the process of designing and conducting an Institutional Review Board (IRB) approved human-subjects experiment with the purpose of identifying judgment bias and measuring the effects of structured techniques on mitigating analytic bias. The study utilized an analytic decision game developed by Colonel Jacob Graham, USMC (ret) to test for bias in intelligence analysis. The research, conducted in partnership with Raytheon Company, adapted the experimental design utilized in the Raytheon Grand Challenge. The study evaluated the effectiveness of three structured analytic techniques: Link Analysis, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), and Information Extraction and Weighting (IEW). Researchers compared these techniques to a control group to determine the impact of the structured analytic techniques on mitigating bias that may occur during decision-making. After establishing if this relationship existed, researchers sought to determine which structured analytic tool was most effective in reducing judgment bias. The study will complement the literature available on analytic bias and explore areas of bias reduction that current literature has not yet investigated. Conclusions drawn from this study can help analysts understand the effects of judgment bias during analytic decision-making and the impact of structured analytic techniques on reducing bias. The overall goal of this research is to contribute literature that will help improve the analytic products and judgments that influence decision making.