The Development and Spread of Soybean Rust in 2013: An Analysis of the Weather Patterns and Their Impact on Market Prices
Open Access
- Author:
- Higgins, Patrick Joseph
- Area of Honors:
- Meteorology
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Paul Gerard Knight, Thesis Supervisor
Chris Eliot Forest, Thesis Honors Advisor - Keywords:
- Soybean Rust
Weather Risk Management
Industry Forecasting
Crop Disease
Phakopsora pachyrhizi
Commodities Market - Abstract:
- Many industries are affected by meteorology, but few areas are impacted more by day-to-day variations in the weather than agriculture. Soybean rust, which plagues soybean (Glycine max) crops worldwide, is a dangerous spore-based disease that is highly reliant on weather for transport. Caused by the pathogen Phakopsora pachyrhizi, soybean rust was first introduced to the Americas from Asia in 2001, making the well-established soybean crop vulnerable to the disease. The light spores are easily picked up by the wind and carried long distances to infect new crops; additionally, because the plant’s leaves must be wet to become infected, rain often deposits these spores. Since the disease is often difficult to spot until deep into the infection cycle, farmers rely heavily on weather forecasts to decide whether or not to spray expensive fungicides to prevent infection. Failure to prevent infection of soybeans can result in harsh reductions of harvest yield, as infected soybean plants are essentially lost for the year; this also impacts price fluctuations in the soybean commodity market. Data taken during the 2013 United States growing season support each of these assertions. The intention of this study is to highlight weather’s role in the development and spread of soybean rust in addition to potential solutions to the disease while focusing on cases occurring in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. The results of this analysis indicate that soybean rust is being carefully confined to the Southeast, but the disease still has important effects on crop yield and price.