Should China Cancel the One Child Policy? An Empirical Research Based on Population and Economy Data

Open Access
Author:
Wang, Li
Area of Honors:
Economics
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
  • James R. Tybout, Thesis Supervisor
  • Russell Paul Chuderewicz, Honors Advisor
  • James R. Tybout, Faculty Reader
Keywords:
  • One Child Policy
  • China
  • Demographic Shifts
Abstract:
China implemented its controversial one child policy over thirty years ago. It was originally applied due to severe social, economic and environmental issues. However, China has become a major economy in the world and its less expensive labor force is frequently attributed as the main reason for China’s miracle economic growth. Thus, whether this policy that was published thirty years ago is still necessary, and whether it will potentially hurt China’s economy puzzles many researchers globally. This thesis mainly tries to answer these questions with empirical data support. I use changes in capital stock, dependency ratio, and dependency population to predict GDP growth rate until 2050. The results show that if China continues to implement this policy, it will face economy downturn no later than 2017, three years from now.