The End of the One-Child Policy: An Analysis of China's Family Planning Policy and the 2013 Mitigation Policy

Open Access
Author:
Zhuguan, Yangxi
Area of Honors:
Economics
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
  • David Shapiro, Thesis Supervisor
  • Russell Paul Chuderewicz, Honors Advisor
Keywords:
  • China
  • family planning policy
  • demographic economics
  • labor economics
  • progression projection
Abstract:
In this paper I study the most recent change of China’s Family Planning Policy (FPP). I first lay out the background of China’s FPP. Then I present selected research that argues for and against the efficacy of the FPP and my opinion of whether it has been an efficient policy. Next, I introduce the largely reformed version of the FPP that came into being in late 2013, which was designed to meet the socio-economic challenge of China’s aging population by mitigating the previously-enacted One-Child Policy and inducing more childbirth. I conduct a progression projection to estimate the number of additional children this mitigation policy may generate over a ten-year period beginning in 2015. Following the projection, I compare the result with the government’s estimation as well as real-world situation to see whether the mitigation policy is capable of fulfilling its purpose. Lastly I draw the conclusion that the mitigation policy is not likely to make any major contribution to help China tackling the population challenge, and I provide suggestions of further opening up the FPP so as to adapt to the population problem.