An Empirical Analysis of Demand in Collegiate Football
Open Access
Author:
Pistner, Michelle Anne
Area of Honors:
Interdisciplinary in Economics and Statistics
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Peter William Newberry, Thesis Supervisor Dr. Russell Paul Chuderewicz, Thesis Honors Advisor Murali Haran, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
Statistics football sports
Abstract:
The Pennsylvania State University is home to a strong athletic program marked by fan loyalty.
However, as with many sports programs, a natural problem arises as to how to predict purchasing
habits of individual buyers. This paper analyzes attendance and individual demand for the university’s
football program. Linear regressions were used to model attendance on a game by game
basis. This analysis concluded that opponent strength and past performance were the strongest
predictors of attendance. Demand was further analyzed on the individual level. Purchasing habits
for the year prior was found to be the strongest predictor of an individual’s purchases for the next
year. However, the usefulness of this information is limited. In order to determine new buyers
and returning buyers, logistic regression models and decision trees were constructed. Their results
yield a simple framework relying on past behavior and account information to predict between
different buying patterns.