The Risk of Signing Previously-Arrested NFL Players
Open Access
- Author:
- Conners, Bradford Thomas
- Area of Honors:
- Actuarial Science
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Ron Gebhardtsbauer, Thesis Supervisor
Ron Gebhardtsbauer, Thesis Honors Advisor
Andrew John Wiesner, Faculty Reader - Keywords:
- actuarial science
risk management
sports analytics
NFL
recidivism - Abstract:
- With an increasing amount of attention being placed on quantifying the value a player can bring to a team through his on-field contributions, this report examines an off-the-field risk that teams may face by acquiring a player. Using a data set of NFL player arrests since 2000, this study calculates the likelihood that a previously-arrested player will be arrested an additional time in a given number of years. It is determined that variables such as elapsed time since a player’s last arrest, number of prior arrests, years of NFL experience, the presence of a punishment affecting his playing career, and a misdemeanor versus a felony charge appear to affect the likelihood of a repeat arrest. These factors are used to develop a model that helps teams classify the risk that a player experiences future legal trouble based on the circumstances behind his arrest history. Furthermore, events transpiring during the 2014 NFL season and resulting changes to the NFL player conduct policy have brought an increased focus on arrests involving violence. An additional analysis finds that several of the variables that influence general recidivism have a similar effect on predicting violence-related arrests. The report concludes by considering other ways in which the methods that are discussed can be used to give teams a fully comprehensive evaluation of the risks involved with signing a particular player.