Predicting Major League Baseball Playoff Probabilities Using Logistic Regression
Open Access
Author:
Bittner, Evan James
Area of Honors:
Statistics
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Andrew John Wiesner, Thesis Supervisor Murali Haran, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
statistics baseball logistic regression logistic regression playoffs probability
Abstract:
Major League Baseball teams are constantly assessing whether or not they think their teams will make the playoffs. Many sources publish playoff probabilities or odds throughout the season using advanced statistical methods. These methods are somewhat secretive and typically advanced and difficult to understand. The goal of this work is to determine a way to calculate playoff probabilities midseason that can easily be understood and applied. The goal is to develop a method and compare its predictive accuracy to the current methods published by statistical baseball sources such as Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs.