Understanding the Spread of Isis in Iraq
Open Access
- Author:
- Coughlin, William David
- Area of Honors:
- Geography
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Roger Michael Downs, Thesis Supervisor
Roger Michael Downs, Thesis Honors Advisor
Donna Jean Peuquet, Faculty Reader - Keywords:
- ISIS
Geography
GIS
Regression Model
Middle East
Iraq - Abstract:
- The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) first took control of territory in Iraq in 2013 and the group has continued to expand its control and influence despite international intervention. The rise of ISIS was unexpected and unprecedented, and there continues to be a lack of understanding of how ISIS was able to gain a large amount of territory in such a short amount of time. This paper aims to establish what the core factors are that allowed ISIS to form, spread and govern territory in Iraq. The ESRI exploratory regression tool was used to create a multivariate regression model and to analyze twelve factors that may play significant roles in the spread of ISIS. The factors that were considered are ethnicity (Sunni, Shia, Kurdish and mixed), water resources, civilian deaths, suicide bombing deaths, distance from Syria, population, location of Iraqi military brigades, and major cities. The final multivariate regression model had Kurdish majority, water resources, civilian deaths, distance from Syria and Iraqi military brigades as significant factors. These five exploratory variables has an R^2 of .77, explaining 77% of towns controlled by ISIS. These factors provide insight into the rise of ISIS and help to explain what type of environment within Iraq allowed for the spread of ISIS. This qualitative and quantitative research allows for greater understanding of the adversary, which is the first step in defeating them.