THE SELF-DEFEATING EFFECTS OF AMERICAN DRONE WARFARE IN PAKISTAN AND YEMEN
Open Access
Author:
Saroka, Steven William
Area of Honors:
International Politics
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
James A Piazza, Thesis Supervisor Dr. Gretchen G Casper, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
Pakistan Yemen International Politics Terrorism Drone Warfare
Abstract:
Are drone strikes effective tools of US counterterrorism policy? Despite intense debate, including some qualitative findings that cast doubt on their effectiveness, there are relatively few quantitative examinations of this topic. The author uses regression models to test the effects of drone strikes on terrorism in Pakistan and Yemen from 2000-2014. He tests two hypotheses: that drone strikes will lead to increased numbers of general terrorist attacks, and that drone strikes lead to increased numbers of suicide terrorist attacks. He uses negative binomial regression models, with monthly leads and lags out to 12 months, to test these hypotheses. Results show significant, positive, and endogenous relationships between drone strikes and both kinds of attacks, but only in Pakistan, and with a stronger relationship for terrorist attacks than suicide attacks. This implies that drone strikes are ineffective counterterrorism tools.
