Estimation of Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Position Using a Modified Dvorak Satellite Technique and a Consensus Method
Open Access
Author:
Tomoff, Alexander Marat
Area of Honors:
Meteorology
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Chris Eliot Forest, Thesis Supervisor Chris Eliot Forest, Thesis Honors Advisor Anthony Carl Didlake Jr., Faculty Reader
Keywords:
Meteorology Dvorak Tropical Hurricane
Abstract:
The Dvorak satellite technique is a relatively accurate, reproducible method for operationally estimating tropical cyclone intensity and position. We study the accuracy and potential biases of the method for Northern Atlantic and East Pacific storms from 2009 to 2016 as developed by two different agencies (the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch and the Satellite Analysis Branch), as well as one objective technique (the Automated Dvorak Technique). The products of each agency contribute significant skill to a multi-group consensus. The combination of the three groups helps lower mean absolute error of the consensus, which is found to be 2.63%, 20.6%, and 35.9% smaller than TAFB, SAB, and ADT, respectively. This implies that using a consensus average of Dvorak estimates is generally better than using any one individual group. The Dvorak Technique needs modification for cases when storms are weakening. Taking the average of the Current Intensity number and the T-number for weakening storms only improves the predictive skill of the Dvorak Technique for weakening systems for TAFB. This work affirms that, as a whole, the multi-group Dvorak consensus is improved by each constituent part, and that more research should focus on modifying the technique to better suit current understandings of tropical cyclone development.
