War and Conflict in Regime Transitioning States

Open Access
Velenchuk, Timofey
Area of Honors:
Political Science
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis Supervisors:
  • Douglas William Lemke, Thesis Supervisor
  • Dr. Matthew Richard Golder, Honors Advisor
  • War
  • Regime change
  • regime transition
  • democratization
  • autocratization
  • democratization and war
  • autocratization and war
  • eastern europe
  • soviet union
  • former soviet union
  • cold war
  • post-cold war
  • post cold war
  • conflict
  • MIDs
  • mids
  • mid
  • militarized interstate disputes
  • militarized interstate dispute
  • Romanian revolution
  • Tajikistani civil war
  • bi-polar powers
  • major powers
Humans have been plagued by war and conflict throughout all of history. This war and conflict arises from several factors such as territorial disputes, power struggles, and greed. This thesis explores war under the context of regime change. Specifically, the relationship between regime change and conflict is examined in the pre and post-Cold War period under the Eastern European and former Soviet Union states, the states which were directly impacted and related to the set-up of the world powers system during both periods. Two hypotheses are analyzed. The first: from 1955 to 1990, countries undergoing democratization will experience more wars relative to countries autocratizing or not transitioning at all. The second: from 1991 to 2010, countries transitioning to more autocratic forms of government will experience more wars. These hypotheses are supported by the data, with both displaying statistically significant results. Two cases studies are also examined: the Romanian Revolution and the Tajikistani Civil War. However, the examination of these case studies did not provide much support for the theory that the world power system during and after the Cold War (a bi-polar powers system during the Cold War and a major powers system after Cold War) had a casual effect on democratization leading to more war during the Cold War, and autocratization leading to more war after the Cold War.