Modeling Public Transit Bus Dwell Times for Real-Time Prediction
Open Access
Author:
Killian, Joshua Mark
Area of Honors:
Civil Engineering
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Vikash Varun Gayah, Thesis Supervisor John Michael Regan, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
transit bus dwell time transit signal priority bus stop survival model
Abstract:
It is important to understand dwell times for transit buses at bus stops in order to make
the best use of TSP at intersections near bus stops. This allows for buses to move most
efficiently, which encourages increased ridership. Current dwell time models rely on data that
prevents use of the models in real-time, but the models proposed in this study would be capable
of use in real-time in conjunction with TSP. A wealth of data for this study was provided by the
Centre Area Transportation Authority (CATA) in State College, PA. From this data,
independent variables were selected for the models predicting dwell time. This set of variables
was maintained for each of the following: linear models, quantile models, and survival models.
The quantile models resulted in narrower confidence intervals than the linear models. The
survival models, however, generally provided the most accurate estimates of dwell time. It is
recommended that future research focus on determining the confidence levels at which the
survival models can be used.
