Evaluating the Usefulness and Response to Graphical Information Used to Communicate Uncertainty-Driven and Probabilistic Winter Weather Forecasts
Open Access
- Author:
- Morse, Jacob
- Area of Honors:
- Meteorology
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Chris E Forest, Thesis Supervisor
Chris E Forest, Thesis Honors Advisor
Colin M. Zarzycki, Faculty Reader - Keywords:
- meteorology
social science
survey
winter weather
forecasting
communicating information
public
uncertainty
probabilistic information
graphic design
social media
focus groups
meteorologists - Abstract:
- Hazardous winter weather events cause significant impacts on daily life, but the ways these events are currently communicated, especially with the graphical information that is used, varies greatly across the weather enterprise. Important forecast information can sometimes be misleading or confusing due to the way it is displayed or the way that people interpret it. Previous studies have shown that including uncertainty and probabilistic information in weather messaging is an effective means of conveying risks and aiding in decision-making. Therefore, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices have begun using some probabilistic information in their messaging strategies for winter weather. For instance, based on probabilistic data, forecasters will create three-category “risk probability” graphics to communicate the inherent uncertainty of snowfall accumulations. However, despite their utility across the weather enterprise, very few studies exist that examine the interpretation or effectiveness of this messaging strategy. In this study, we will analyze a variety of uncertainty-driven and probabilistic messaging strategies for hazardous winter weather, including the “risk probability” graphics, to examine what strategies are easiest to interpret and most effective at communicating important forecast information. A variety of online surveys and focus groups for emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, NWS meteorologists, and the public were used to identify their relative understanding and likely responses to the different messaging strategies. One survey of the public amassed over 800 responses, generating several conclusions. One significant result of this research focuses on how core partners of the NWS as well as most of the public want more probabilistic and uncertainty information incorporated into the forecasts they receive while keeping the graphics used to communicate this information simple and easy to understand.