Robert Alexander Novack, Thesis Supervisor Brian Spangler Davis, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
NFL Moneylines Sports Gambling Betting Modern Portfolio Theory
Abstract:
Sports Gambling is an industry that is quickly taking hold across the United States. With already several already legalized Sports Gambling, and more on the way, it would appear that Sports Gambling will be in the United States for years to come. With that being said, many average gamblers are woefully unaware of certain risks and tricks that are inherent in the industry. In this thesis, the theory known as Modern Portfolio Theory was examined on its use in the sports gambling world, specifically moneyline games in the NFL. Using expected returns and standard deviations extrapolated with moneyline betting lines for the 2020 NFL season, the Modern Portfolio Theory was tested. While the Modern Portfolio Theory does not fit perfectly, standard deviation and expected return showed promising results that can be built upon in upcoming research. Low standard deviation returned success more often than not, and expected return helped show discrepancies in Las Vegas probability and NFL network probabilities.
