Investigating Patterns, Trends, and Impacts of Heat Wave Occurrence in Bangladesh
Open Access
- Author:
- Sexton, Baylee
- Area of Honors:
- Meteorology
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Chris E Forest, Thesis Supervisor
Chris E Forest, Thesis Honors Advisor
Colin M. Zarzycki, Faculty Reader - Keywords:
- Climate
Climatology
Heat Waves
Trends
Bangladesh
Humidity
Monsoon - Abstract:
- Exposure to the negative effects of climate change varies across geographies. Climate-related vulnerabilities are high for Bangladesh, a low-lying nation in South Asia that frequently endures natural hazards like tropical cyclones, droughts, monsoon rainfall and floods, and heat waves. Heat waves most commonly occur accompanying anomalously dry conditions during the pre-monsoon season (March – May), however, they can also occur during other seasons accompanied by both high daily minimum temperatures and high daily wet-bulb temperatures. Coincidences of high values of these variables can lead to adverse health effects and loss of productivity in Bangladesh’s industries. In this study, we seek to gain a deeper understanding of these heat waves, their climatology, and what factors contribute to their occurrence and severity. Using two observational datasets, we estimated climatologies and trends for daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wet-bulb temperature for all of Bangladesh and for eight major cities. Additionally, we estimated frequencies and trends in the occurrence of heat waves and other extreme temperature events. Location had a significant impact on the patterns and trends. While the highest values of both mean daily maximum temperature and mean heat wave frequency are in western Bangladesh, the largest trends in these variables are in eastern Bangladesh. Additionally, interannual variability is highest in western Bangladesh, suggesting that heat wave behavior in this region is highly variable and indicates a need for better prediction of and preparation for heat waves. Some cities experienced significant trends in one temperature variable, and not in others. Furthermore, some experienced significant trends in the coincidence of multiple variables. Considering these factors, we identified crucial cities for further study and proposed a decision-making tool that can support future preparedness for extreme heat events.