A Preliminary Framework for Modeling Human Migration Flows Impacted by Climate Change–Induced State Carrying Capacity Changes
Open Access
Author:
Yukish, Alexandra
Area of Honors:
International Politics
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Xun Cao, Thesis Supervisor Gretchen G Casper, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
climate change migration markov chain model climate modeling carrying capacity predictive modeling migration behavior human migration state carrying capacity human migration flows markov model human-environmental studies simulation climate anthropogenic climate change global warming migration policy africa african continent climate change in africa ipcc cmip unhcr
Abstract:
This paper develops a preliminary framework for modeling human migration flows where climate change (mean annual temperature increase) impacts state carrying capacity and movement is constrained by finite migration rates. It begins with a brief discussion of the assumptions underlying the model and the scope of the model’s application to continental Africa for the years 2020-2100. The model’s ability to simulate population flows and state carrying capacity is then demonstrated, and sensitivities of model output to parameter changes are explored. Experimentation with model parameters indicates a potentially catastrophic inability of human populations to adapt quickly enough to changing carrying capacities as climate change stresses existing population regions such as the Sahara and the Sahel. Actionable policy approaches to address the concerns identified by the model are presented. The ongoing need for human migration research focused on its interaction with climate-induced collapse frames this paper. Suggested improvements to the model to better address the limitations of the model’s scope are reviewed.
