Russian Information Operations Increase Partisan Division in the United States
Open Access
- Author:
- Birosik, Nicholas Christopher
- Area of Honors:
- Interdisciplinary in International Affairs, Political Science, and Social Data Analytics
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- John Gregory Hodgson, Thesis Supervisor
Matthew Richard Golder, Thesis Honors Advisor
Eleanor M. Brown, Thesis Honors Advisor - Keywords:
- Political Warfare
Russia
Information Operations
Political Science
Division
GRU
CIA
Propaganda
Demoralization
Subversion
Ideology
Untied States
Affective Polarization
Affect
social identity theory - Abstract:
- The bitter partisan division in the United States has made “reaching across the aisle” an insurmountable task. At an individual level, affective polarization is responsible for a new-found increase in hostility, embitterment, and incivility between partisans and is therefore cause for great concern. But what forces are responsible for generating this increasing division? Could foreign state actors be responsible for hijacking Americans’ partisan identity and pitting portions of the American population against each other for the purposes of eroding faith in American Democracy and institutions? This thesis examines whether and to what degree Russian Information Operations have been responsible for increasing affective polarization which is plaguing contemporary American society. This question is approached quantitatively using data sourced from the American National Election Study. Based upon an evaluation of the generated models for each party, this paper finds that Russian Information Operations possess a statistically significant impact on predicting affective polarization. At the nexus of these mathematical models, rigorously established theoretical reasoning, and historical deductions lies a compelling argument that Russian Information Operations may also possess a causal relationship with affective polarization. Further research is necessary to explore how different operationalizations of RIOs may help researchers distinguish feeling felt towards groups versus that group’s ideas. The results of this thesis will help Americans understand that the very palpable partisan division is at least partly the byproduct of external puppeteering instead of organically grown hatred towards fellow Americans; at this juncture society could collectively decide to no longer perpetuate such discordant narratives and thus ameliorate the yawning chasm between the many feuding factions in contemporary America. At this point, bipartisanship could be restored, and America’s highest good could once again be advanced.