The Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation on Al-Qaeda’s Group Operational Capacity
Open Access
Author:
Datsko, Sophia
Area of Honors:
Political Science
Degree:
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
James A Piazza, Thesis Supervisor Michael Barth Berkman, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
al-Qaeda AQAP AQIM AQIS terrorism leadership decapitation drones United States
Abstract:
This qualitative study tests the effects of leadership decapitation on leaders from several al-Qaeda branches to determine whether or not group operational capacity, in terms of ability to produce attacks, is affected. It dually distinguishes between the effects of leadership strikes conducted by the U.S. government and the respective government of the state the particular al-Qaeda branch operates in. I argue that leadership strikes conducted by the U.S. result in a higher number of attacks in the month following a branch leader’s death. Consequently, I contend that leadership strikes executed by the respective government of the state in which the al-Qaeda branch operates lead to a lower number of attacks in the month following the leader’s death. The results of the study reveal mixed outcomes. One al-Qaeda branch decreased the number and severity of attacks following a U.S. strike while increasing the number and severity of attacks in the aftermath of a strike by the respective government. Another branch produced only one attack with zero causalities or injuries, regardless of which government conducted a strike. The third branch increased attacks following a strike by the respective government, with no data available on strikes by the U.S.