Food Resilience in the Face of Catastrophic Global Events: Initial Computational Analysis of Nuclear Winter Scenarios on Rice
Open Access
Author:
Viswanathan, Vishnu
Area of Honors:
Biology
Degree:
Bachelor of Science
Document Type:
Thesis
Thesis Supervisors:
Jesse R Lasky, Thesis Supervisor Stephen Wade Schaeffer, Thesis Honors Advisor
Keywords:
nuclear offset genomics rice
Abstract:
Nuclear warfare poses devastating effects long after the initial strike. The destruction of the environment alongside the creation of absorptive aerosols leads to long-lasting global cooling and environmental damage. Crops and traditional agriculture are affected due to the loss of sunlight and change in precipitation and temperature; analyzing important crops that are at risk may provide the first step in climate change mitigation. Rice is a staple crop cultivated globally and can serve as a beneficial model to study the dire effects of a nuclear strike on traditional agriculture. Genomic offset, a marker for predicted maladaptation, can be used to determine broad risk trends. A post-nuclear environment experiences the worst offset in the second year post strike with many scenarios alleviating in the eighth year; however, the worst case scenario, a 150 teragrams (Tg) soot-release US-Russia conflict, would result in decadal cooling and more intense environmental complications. Rice landraces across certain higher latitudinal thresholds would experience the worst conditions in terms of offset. Efforts to combat potential nuclear and climatic shifts can include the utilization of backup varieties, crop relocation, and genetic engineering
