Global Recessions and Accuracy in Forecasting
Open Access
- Author:
- Watson, Garrett
- Area of Honors:
- International Business (Behrend)
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Mark F Owens, Thesis Supervisor
Mark F Owens, Thesis Honors Advisor
Greg Filbeck, Faculty Reader - Keywords:
- Recession
Global Recessions
Business Cycle - Abstract:
- The purpose of this thesis is to inform the reader about the nature of macroeconomic recession, why they occur, and what businesses and investors can do to avoid losing as much money during a recession. This thesis also argues that global recessions are not only inevitable as a natural part of the business cycle, but are also highly predictable, both in terms of occurrence and also scale. The discussion on macroeconomic recessions informs readers what a recession actually is, and gives both quantitative as well as qualitative factors. It also gives a detailed overview of the business cycle, and where recessions fit into the equation. It starts with an introduction of my experience with recessions. The discussion on why recessions occur informs readers of the signs of a recession, explains the inevitability of them, and describes what happens to the overall economy during one. The discussion on consumer well-being during a recession explains what to do and what not to do as an investor during a recession and gives examples of ways investors can not only limit their loss, but also earn positive returns during a recession. The final section synthesizes the three previous themes to prove that recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle and can be more or less easily and accurately predicted by the average investor. After reading this thesis, the reader will not only have a much better understanding of recessions but will also be able to explain why they occur and when they should occur.