The War in Ukraine: Its Impact on Global Commodities and Lessons for Future Conflicts
Open Access
- Author:
- Bodek, Simon
- Area of Honors:
- Supply Chain and Information Systems
- Degree:
- Bachelor of Science
- Document Type:
- Thesis
- Thesis Supervisors:
- Robert Alexander Novack, Thesis Supervisor
Saurabh Bansal, Thesis Honors Advisor - Keywords:
- Supply Chain
Supply Chain Disruptions
Commodities
International Trade
Exports
Russia-Ukraine War - Abstract:
- Global commodity markets have undergone significant turmoil since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the midst of this situation, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending prices skyrocketing. In the two years since this conflict began, the question has become: how has the Russia-Ukraine war impacted commodities long-term, and can those impacts have predictive value for future crises? This paper answers this question through a quantitative analysis of key exports, comparing those of the impacted country to global values, in particular those of price and lead time. Supplemental analysis of other crises since 2000 provide additional data points to determine how much a commodity’s price increases in the global market due to the extent a country is a significant exporter of that particular commodity. The resulting regression model is then used to estimate the price increase of selected exports in a hypothetical China-Taiwan conflict. The findings indicate that commodities heavily produced in Ukraine and Russia have had significant price spikes but are dependent on the commodity and overall industry. Commodities that are more dependent on a particular country for production do not exhibit greater price increases than those that are not as dependent due to external market forces. A country’s strength in exports only accounts for twenty percent of price increases. Yet despite this limitation, these variables provide a method to predict price changes in the face of mounting natural disasters and political conflicts that threaten global commodity markets.